Fiascos; "Why So Many Miscalculations?"

Imperfections of group decisions; Effects of group cohesiveness; groupthink

Main idea: Groupthink=fiasco

"The potentially detrimental effect of group cohesiveness were emphasized by another theorst, Wilfred Bion, an eminent group therapist. Bion described how the efficienty of all working groups can be adversely affected by the preconscious myths and misconceptions of their mutually dependent members--that is, by shared basic assumptions that tend to preserive the group without regard for the work at hand."
p 4

Conceptions of political decision making (p6)

1. "rational actor" theory--aims to determine the ends of the political actor by means of the policy he has chosen.
2. Taking into account "organizational rigidities" such as routines and procedures of bureaucratic organizations that grind out platitudes about what can be done to attain objectives.
3. Intrusions of the games of domestic and local bureacratic politics into the dangerous competitive games of international relations.
4. group dynamics approach: paying closer attention to the behavior of the small group of decision-makers

Groupthink: when someone deviates from the group's reasoning, rather than explore the new line of thought, subtle "ganging up" takes place trying to bring them back in line. Group cohesion becomes all important.

Quote: "The invidiousness [of the Orwell-esque word] is intentional: Groupthink refers to a deterioration of mental efficiency, reality testing, and moral judgment that results from in-group pressures."

Major defects in decision-making policy:

1. Groups discussion limited to a few (often 2) courses of action, not a survey/range.
2. Objectives filled and values implicated by decision not examined.
3. No reexamination of decision preferred by the majority for less obvious failures.
4. No reexamination of decisions initially rejected by majority.
5. No attempt to get more information from experts.
6. Little interest in facts/opinions that don't support their initial majority vote.
7. Little discussion on how chosen policy to be hindered by bureaucratic inertia, sabotaged by politics etc. Therefore, no contingency plans.