The Web of War; Ch 8 "The Abacus of Power"

Balance of Power; Clausewitz (Prussian soldier; On War)

• A dominant nation can preserve the peace simply by its ability to keep inferior nations in order.
  -or-
• A nation which is too powerful endangers the peace

"balance of power" misleadingly simple

"Most believers in the balance of power think that a world of many powerful states tends to be more peaceful." (Waltz's article referenced bipolarity as the other great-peacekeeper besides nuclear power). "In the nuclear age...two great power were prefereable to eight. The danger of a crisis that slipped from control was diminished if two powers dominated the world." (only quoted here as a link to the Waltz article).

"...no historian ...produced evidence to confirm that a power system of seven strong states was more conducive teo peace than a system of two strong states. The idea relies much on analogies" ('two legged table unsteady'; bicycles; virtues of free economic competition)

Balance of power: not a formula for peace, but for national independence. Prevents the rise of a nation to world dominance.

Survey of wars from 1700-1815 in the reading suggests decicive victories, strong victors, lead to longer periods of peace. Idea of a neat ledger of power at the end of the war, the ideal time to measure it.

Wars begin with diplomacy breakdown, in turn caused by both sides having conflicting estimates of their bargaining power. "It is not the actual distribution of power that is vital: it is rather the way in which national leaders think that power is distributed." "War is a disbute about the measure of power" p114

Wars after 1815 shorter, more decisive, with longer periods of peace. However, the agreement about nations' bargaining power (i.e. wars with a clearly superior country, even if level is not precise) rarely lasted as long as one generation..

Fear of trounced country rising again gives co-victors reason to stay united rather than fight each other for further dominance setting on the ladder. Also, seeing allies during a war's military strength may inhibit countries from attacking them (ie US and Russia after WWII).

Balance of power replaced with Balance of Terror in the nuclear age. Some argue two powers now more stable. Others argue stalemates exists prior to nuclear capabilities.

"Agreement depends not only on an assessment of the might of hthe enemy but a prediction of the costs and profits of fighting rather than negotiating." "War itself is a dispute about measurement; peace on the other hand marks a rough agreement aout measurement." p122

Nations' assessing their strength:

1. military strength
2. predictions of outside nations reaction
3. perceptions of internal unity (their own and enemy's)
4. memory of forgetfulness of realities of war
5. perceptions of prosperity and ability to sustain a war
6. nationalism and ideology
7. personality and mental qualities of the leaders.

If these combine to make a nation think it's powerful, war may be soon... Confidence a big overarching factor. Optimism usually precedes a war.